Dubai's residential property market cooled notably in the third quarter of 2026, with transaction values falling 47 per cent year-on-year to Dh72.6 billion ($19.7 billion), according to new data from real estate consultancy Cavendish Maxwell. The number of deals dropped 38 per cent to roughly 34,000 transactions.
Ronan Arthur, director and head of residential valuation at Cavendish Maxwell, said buyers have grown markedly more cautious since the regional conflict began earlier this year, a trend that has weighed on purchasing activity throughout the quarter. Even so, he noted the market remains active, just operating at a slower pace than the breakneck growth seen in previous years.
Over the first nine months of 2026, transaction values are down 27 per cent and volumes down 23 per cent compared with the same period last year. Off-plan properties continue to dominate the market, accounting for 65 per cent of total sales value and 72 per cent of all purchases.
Emaar Properties founder Mohamed Alabbar has forecast a price adjustment of between 5 and 10 per cent across Dubai's real estate sector as a result of the conflict, while analysts at S&P Global Ratings expect a more gradual correction of 5 to 15 per cent between the end of 2025 and September 2026.
Despite the slowdown, most market watchers describe the pullback as a temporary pause driven by buyer caution rather than a structural downturn, with transaction activity expected to pick back up gradually as regional tensions ease.