A new World Bank report has identified the UAE and Jordan as facing the largest share of jobs at risk from generative AI substitution among Middle East economies, according to the institution's October 2026 Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan (MENAAP) Economic Update.
The report finds that across the wider region, no more than roughly 10 per cent of jobs face genuine risk of being substituted by AI, while 13 to 20 per cent of jobs could see productivity gains from the technology, though the ultimate outcome remains uncertain.
The World Bank attributes the UAE's higher exposure to the structure of its economy: higher-income economies tend to concentrate their workforce in cognitive, knowledge-based occupations, precisely the kind of work generative AI performs well. The report notes the UAE shows above-average AI use in 9 of 22 occupation groups studied, including software, management, sales, arts, media, food preparation and personal care services.
It also finds that the economic value AI generates relative to the UAE's GDP is now approaching levels seen in Germany and the United Kingdom. On the labour-market side, the report notes that since the launch of ChatGPT, the value of freelance skills most exposed to AI substitution has fallen by 9.8 per cent, while the entry rate of new freelancers into those same skill categories has dropped by 12.1 per cent.
Separately, the UAE climbed to 8th place globally in Stanford's 2024 AI Vibrancy Index, up sharply from 32nd in 2017. Enrolment in generative AI courses on Coursera grew 344 per cent year-on-year in the country, although women still make up only 20 to 25 per cent of that enrolment.
The findings add to a growing body of evidence that the UAE's rapid AI adoption, while boosting productivity in many sectors, is also reshaping which skills remain in demand across its labour market.